Thoughts on Caps@NYR Game 1

First playoff game I've been to since 2001 (Pens@Caps). The atmosphere was intense. Definitely a lot more fun than New Jersey in the regular season. That being said...

• Alex Ovechkin either needs to play with Backstrom and Johansson, get his act together, or sit on the bench. He shouldn't be getting dominated by a line centered by Derek Stepan or Brad Richards. That being said, Dale Hunter should be trying to get Ovechkin away from the power-versus-power matchup that Tortorella likes to use. Plan for next season: make sure Ovechkin can handle those matchups competently by the playoffs so if it comes up on the road, Hunter needn't worry.
• The Capitals had the better of play, easily, in the first forty and last ten. Those soft goals and mental lapses kill, though. Today was a wasted effort, like Game 6 versus Boston. Hopefully, the Capitals can overcome it again. If they play, on the whole, like they did today for the rest of the series, they'll win in five or six comfortably.
• Holtby needs to find a way to "focus" or the Capitals will truly have a mountain to climb, down 0-2 heading back to Washington.
• Alexander Semin and Ovechkin need to remember that the Rangers will dive to draw penalties and they don't have that reputation, either. No more of those marginal plays, please.
• Marcus Johansson by the game is looking more and more like a Danny Briere-type--not great with possession, not big, but will come through in the postseason. Johansson hit the post at least once, and eventually he'll stop facing elite netminders and score a lot more.
• Jay Beagle started the game with Ovechkin and Brouwer. Really, Hunter?
• With the game winding down, it should be Carlson, not Wideman, out there with Green on defense. Aside from 08-09, Carlson's lowest 5v5 points/60 season rate is better than Wideman's best.
• I love it when fans heckle me after their team (skaters, specifically), honestly, didn't deserve to win. Congratulations, guys. You, a 1-seed, won a home game against a 7-seed despite only getting 14 shots on goal and despite the other team hitting the post four times. I could make a habit out of going to road games in hostile arenas, if I could trust the Capitals to come forth with this effort every game. (I did shut up a group of fans, though, by telling them what I was doing in New York. Wasn't sure if they'd be impressed, but apparently they were.)
• On the flip side, I'm sure John Tortorella will coax a better game out of his team on Monday.
• If both teams are taking away shooting lanes, how about more of this? Arrive a little bit late. It's all about timing, and neither team really had it going (though the Caps I thought were much better, even if just while deflecting shots).
• Is it time to give Knuble a look in the top-six?

I'm feeling a lot better about this series than I did yesterday. Nonetheless, I'm not sure how Boyle and Dubinsky can influence this series when they get back, so it's imperative the Caps take Game 2 and head back to DC having won home ice advantage and having some margin for error. This reinforces my belief that the Capitals are the better team right now, so they need to show it before the Rangers get back two of their hard-minutes (either by competition or zone start or both) forwards. That extra edge would, I imagine, push the Rangers over the top if they're already up 2-0. If it's 1-1, not necessarily.

Conference Semifinal Predictions

I went 6/8, missing completely on the Hawks and Wings falling. Corsi went 3/8, getting only New Jersey, Los Angeles, and St. Louis. All defensive-minded teams that excel at shot prevention. Hmm...

Note: Corsi predictions based off these numbers.


1 New York Rangers vs 7 Washington Capitals

How do the systems match up? The Rangers mid-season were trending up in terms of possession, but stagnated are overall mediocre. The Capitals have been improving by the game since late January, but it's hard to peg how they'll do against another team that relies on great goaltending, a disciplined system, and blocking shots like the Rangers. I do think Boyle's big dump-and-chase game could prove problematic for Ovechkin's line and Semin's line, but luckily for Washington, he's out of the lineup.

Alexander Semin and Nicklas Backstrom need to be fantastic. Semin was good last series, but Backstrom could be better. With McDonagh and Girardi making Ovechkin's life tough, but Staal not quite where he was pre-concussion, Backstrom and Semin have ample opportunity to run roughshod over the Rangers' bottom pairs. And they need to, because even after facing Tim Thomas beating Henrik Lundqvist will be hard.

Holtby. If he implodes, Rangers in 4. If he can hold it together like he did in the last series, the Capitals have a very good chance. He probably won't be able to make all the great saves he did last series, so he'll need to cut back on the soft goals.

Speed. The Rangers have some of the league's fastest forwards in Hagelin, Gaborik, and Kreider. Roman Hamrlik and Jeff Schultz will have to hold it together when they find themselves out there against a fast, physical forecheck. 

Prediction: I don't want to pick against Washington when the numbers have the series as roughly 50-50. Capitals in six.

(Corsi prediction: Capitals in 7)

4 Philadelphia Flyers vs 6 New Jersey Devils

Which goalies show up? Ilya Bryzgalov was lights-on for most of the first round. The red light was on behind him quite frequently. Martin Brodeur was better, but he still made some miscues that one might expect from an aging, declining netminder.

Shot prevention. The Devils were the best in the league in shot prevention during the regular season (although New Jersey does undercount shots), rarely went shorthanded, and had a great PK when they did. Philadelphia played pretty well against the best shot-generation team in Pittsburgh. How will the Flyers fare now?

Discipline. If the Devils allow themselves to be roped into the physicality, this series is over. They rely on sticking to DeBoer's system and not making mistakes. They don't have much room for error and can't afford to be distracted (much like Washington against Boston).

Prediction: I think the underlying numbers underestimate Philadelphia. I like their defensive depth, goaltending, and forward depth over those of New Jersey. Flyers in 7.

(Corsi prediction: Devils in 6)

2 St. Louis Blues vs 8 Los Angeles Kings
LA is not your typical eight seed. First in the league by a wide margin in score-adjusted Fenwick since the all-star break. They're scoring three goals a game since then, too. The Kings demolished Vancouver. Then again, the Blues did pretty well against San Jose (remember to consider score effects).

The big names need to be better. Jeff Carter and Mike Richards were heavily outshot, and they're both guys who can typically outshoot top lines. Same deal with David Backes. It's hard to imagine, but both these teams did not play nearly as well as they could have in the first round.

Luck. With the top two teams in terms of regular-season goals against facing each other, the games figure to be mainly 1-0 or 2-1 (3-2 without overtime would mean both teams had an off night in their end!).

Prediction: This should be a great, low-scoring series with terrific, clockwork-like defensive play, great goaltending, and flashes of high skill. I think LA has a bit more and is a slightly better possession team. Kings in 6.

(Corsi prediction: Blues in 7)

3 Phoenix Coyotes vs 4 Nashville Predators
Goalie cooldown. Chicago got Smith'd in Game 6 and Detroit Rinne'd in the first four games. Neither is a true-talent .940+ goalie in the long run. The one that cools down more will lose.

Speed versus skill. Phoenix can create some offense with its speed and committed two-way play. The Coyotes were a half-decent possession team, but Nashville was on the same level as Minnesota (looking at the entire season). The Predators got better as the season went along, but I think Phoenix is still slightly. Nashville's skill needs to show up in a big way and counteract the shot disadvantage I expect it to get.

Last game continuity. If the Coyotes' skaters play this series like Game 6 versus Chicago, Phoenix will lose. If the Predators' skaters play like they did in Game 5, Nashville will win.

Prediction: Coyotes in 7.

(Corsi prediction: Coyotes in 5)

Thoughts on Each Playoff Series

Note: Corsi predictions based off these numbers.


1 New York Rangers vs 8 Ottawa Senators

How does John Tortorella run line matchups? Brad Richards was the top Rangers center by quality of competition, and was a minus player despite playing with either Marian Gaborik, Derek Stepan, or considerable two-way talent on his wings almost all the time. Erik Karlsson, meanwhile, already had one of the highest plus-minuses per 60 minutes of 5v5 of any NHL D while ranking second among Ottawa D in quality of competition, and facing Richards could really shine.

Can Henrik Lundqvist keep this up? The likely recipient of the Vezina trophy in two months, "King Henrik" carried the Rangers while they struggled in possession for the first month or two of the season. While the Blueshirts been much better since, they're still not elite in that regard. Ottawa obviously boasts lethal offensive weapons at all four skater positions with great speed, and gave the Rangers fits during their regular season-series win.

How well can Hagelin, Boyle, Prust, and company move the puck up the ice and cycle? Cycling neutralized Ovechkin for entire shifts last season. Boyle and Hagelin are great at moving the puck up the ice. That is an easy blueprint for beating Spezza when the latter has an offensive zone faceoff. But will it work?

Prediction: I think the Rangers are just too disciplined and have too much two-way depth for the Senators to exploit any weaknesses, because the Rangers' roster does not have any. Rangers in 6.

(Corsi prediction: Senators in 7)

2 Boston Bruins vs 7 Washington Capitals

Can the Bruins flip the switch? Boston has been noticeably worse since the all-star break or so (I'd argue just before), as if they got disinterested. But the Bruins started winning down the stretch, taking seven of their last 10 as Ottawa pulled ahead of Boston briefly in the Northeast standings. The Capitals, meanwhile, have been solid possession-wise since around then. The Bruins before the break were flirting with the top-5. If that Bruins team shows up, the Capitals will truly be outmatched in every facet of the game.

Alexander Semin and Mathieu Perreault need to be fantastic. I expect Chara, Seidenberg, and Bergeron to outscore Ovechkin. With Chara and Seidenberg off the ice, though, the Bruins have no reliable defensemen left. Semin and Perreault should be able to feast on them, and need to if the Capitals are to outscore the Bruins in this series.

Playoff mode for Joel Ward. I disagree that Joel Ward was brought in solely for his playoff heroics last spring in Nashville. It sure would be nice, though, if he could find that groove again. And even if he doesn't, he did a great job keeping the puck in the offensive zone (even compared to fellow tough-minutes eaters like Legwand, Suter, and Weber) despite team-worst zone starts. He doesn't need to score if he can neutralize Krejci and Lucic.

Can everything finally come together for the Capitals? Can Carlson and Alzner re-find the magic they had during the 10-11 regular season? Can Mike Green break out of his scoring slump? Can Dennis Wideman and Semin be "good Dennis" and "good Sasha" for this series? Can Nicklas Backstrom be the best player on the ice sooner rather than later? Can Braden Holtby outplay Tim Thomas over seven games or less?

Yes, but will they?

Prediction: I don't want to pick against Washington when the numbers don't have the series as lopsided in favor of the opponents. Capitals in six.

(Corsi prediction: Bruins in 7)

3 Florida Panthers vs 6 New Jersey Devils

Who starts winning the tight games? The Panthers were notorious for their 18 overtime and shootout losses this season (and also shot a league-worst 2.6% at 4-on-4). The Devils won 11 games in a shootout. Both these teams are adept at extending the game, clearly. At some point, someone will need to score.

Which team has worse goaltending? These teams are roughly equivalent in terms of possession with the score tied (but New Jersey easily considering other situations), so it may just come down to Jose Theodore and Scott Clemmensen versus old Martin Brodeur. All below-average netminders. If there are any shot quality factors in play here (as well as shooting talent for Ilya Kovalchuk), I think they'd all favor the Devils, but over seven games that probably won't amount to too much.

Will Tomas Fleischmann show up? My guess is no.

Prediction: Devils in 5.

(Corsi prediction: Devils in 7)

4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs 5 Philadelphia Flyers

Giroux is a stud. He beat Malkin and Crosby head-to-head in the small sample of their season series. He needs to outscore his opposition so the Flyers have only one stud center to outduel.

How good is Couturier? He'll get the other stud C. I'm not sold on Malkin just yet (he gets put into very privileged situations regarding competition, zone starts, and linemates), but he'll wipe the floor with Briere and may with someone like Voracek, too. Couturier needs to be at his smartest.

PDO regression. Since the Penguins beat the Rangers 2-0 on February 21st, they have a 1067 score-tied PDO and 1036 total PDO. Crosby specifically is over 1150. When will that come back down?

Prediction: I'd rather pick the Flyers than Penguins. Flyers in seven.

(Corsi prediction: Penguins in 5)

1 Vancouver Canucks vs 8 Los Angeles Kings

LA is H-O-T. First in the league by a wide margin in score-adjusted Fenwick since the all-star break. They're scoring three goals a game since then, too.

Daniel Sedin. A huge part of the Canucks' success over the past three years has been their power play. Daniel Sedin is a big, albeit not irreplaceable, part of that.

Center depth. Kopitar. Richards. Carter. Loktionov. Versus Sedin and Kesler. Wow, there's only a tiny mismatch there...

Prediction: Kings in six.

(Corsi prediction: Kings in 7)

2 St. Louis Blues vs 7 San Jose Sharks

Are the Blues fading? After topping the league for so long in possession metrics, St. Louis has fallen off a bit.

Goaltending. I think Niemi versus Halak and Elliott is much closer than you think it is. Both Niemi and Halak I think are above-average, while Elliott..who knows. All I know is the Sharks' PDO (specifically, both their shooting and save percentages) has been down all season, but they're still a good hockey club, generating over 55% of the chances at even strength, and once again boast the best power play by shots (Fenwick For is the best predictor of power play success).

Joe Thornton. He's having the best season of his career, putting up a ton of offense in a shutdown role. He's big, strong, and skilled. He's the Shark best suited to dominate the structured Blues, who obviously are great system-wise but can be beaten, like most teams, one-on-one.

Prediction: I like smart teams. St. Louis is a very, very smart team. Blues in six.

(Corsi prediction: Blues in 5)

3 Phoenix Coyotes vs 6 Chicago Blackhawks

Toews. Chicago's possession numbers are still solid, but not elite. Toews will make them elite again.

Goaltending. Ah, the great separator in the West. Smith versus Crawford and Emery. If the goaltending matchup plays out like it has this season--Smith hot, Crawford and Emery not--this will be over quickly. But small sample sizes rule in the playoffs, and I suspect one of the Chicago netminders will have some magic.

Forecheck. Phoenix's defense is old aside from Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Keith Yandle. Chicago likes to forecheck and play an up-tempo, fast game. This contrast of styles I think favors a younger, smarter team, which I believe Chicago is.

Prediction: Blackhawks in 6. I would have gone shorter than that, but I think Toews will need a couple of games to get up to speed.

(Corsi prediction: Blackhawks in 5)

4 Nashville Predators vs 5 Detroit Red Wings

Paper versus performance. On paper, Nashville is stacked. Their performance possession-wise has been mediocre at best, and that's with Alexander Radulov in the lineup. Meanwhile, Detroit is finally healthy and should look like the dominant team they were early in the season.

Young man's game. Nashville is younger. Suter, Weber, Radulov, and others can still log massive minutes (I'm talking 30 a game here). Lidstrom cannot, Datsyuk cannot, Zetterberg cannot. Nashville can use their best players more than Detroit can.

Prediction: There is a giant gap in Fenwick here. I'm not going to bet against it. Red Wings in 5.

(Corsi prediction: Red Wings in 4)

Zone Entries List

I'm catching up on the games in order (finished with October; unfortunately, missed lots of games in November). You can see the list here, and download (as .csv) here. I color coded a bit to denote manpower, whether the entry was on an odd-man rush, whose entry it was, and whether the entry was controlled (pass or carry-in). The notes nowadays are simply whether I think a goal was the direct result of the entry, the nature of the "X" (not dump/pass/carry/tip) entry, or the nature of the rush.

I have tracked many games, and I'll put up those results once I've finished with the games in between (I was planning to finish over winter break, but I discovered my internet connection wasn't fast enough to stream smoothly and I didn't have the willpower to watch the games that way). I should be caught up around the all-star break.

Recap: Devils 4, Caps 3 (SO)

Remember when we knew the Caps would make the game exciting? I think we're slowly returning to that form. That being said:

• That effort in the first two periods was atrocious. Well, maybe not effort, but the team was clearly very out of sync. I really wonder what the coaches think is the issue. Is it effort? Attention to detail? Focus? Whatever it is, it should be fix-able. I mean, at least you can get back to 40 minute efforts, like in 08-09, right?
• Mike Green is getting healthy at the right time, as Dmitry Orlov seems to have hit a rut over the past couple of games. Tonight he was taking too long to make decisions with the puck. You can't out-wait a guy like Zach Parise who will keep on hounding you until you make a decision.
• Why can't Alex Ovechkin be like that?
• At least he was getting shot attempts. Goals come from shots, which come from shot attempts. One step at a time.
• I loved the look of Ovechkin-Backstrom with Carlson-Alzner. You maximize a guy's offensive abilities by playing in the offensive zone, and with two of Orlov, Wideman, Hamrlik, Erskine, and Schultz playing behind Ovechkin over the last couple of seasons (basically, no Carlson, Alzner, or Green), the Caps end up dwindling away Ovechkin's shifts in the defensive zone. Yes, the Devils sat back and sort of let up, but I think long-term, 8-19 74-27 would be extremely effective.
• That begs the question of how to play shutdown. Hamrlik, Wideman, and Schultz all have track records of success against toughs, but none with the success of Carlzner.
• Halpern I thought didn't have the strongest night. He plays a little differently than Chimera and Ward were used to getting from Laich, I guess.
• Johansson needs to learn to dictate play along the boards. As a D, you can stop skating and wrap the guy up along the boards, like Schultz does so often, but as a forward with the puck or battling for the puck in the offensive zone, you need to make that extra step, get your nose dirty, and act, not react. Brouwer, Knuble, Backstrom, and Ovechkin all get in there and worry about reacting later. Johansson needs to learn to do that (and/or build up the strength to do that), especially when he's not having success carrying the puck through the neutral zone.
• I thought Laich almost over-deked his goal. Oh well, worked out.
• Why can't Semin handle a puck? I slapped myself in the face by accident when he got a perfect pass from Backstrom, leaving him alone in front of the net on the rush, and simply lost the puck. That's all on him. And then he turns it around and makes some nice passes in the third, helping out on two goals.
• Jason Chimera may have scored twice, but he also lost Anton Volchenkov (?) twice on the same shift in OT, the instances within seconds of each other, as the Devils D pinched along the weak side and really would have scored if he were more competent offensively.
• Why isn't Joel Ward on the PK?

No zone entries tonight, since I was in attendance and can't exactly re-wind the game. I plan on catching up over the next two or three weeks.

Zone Entries: Avalanche 2, Caps 1

Link to view.

Pretty lethargic effort from the Caps, I thought. Without the puck, it always seemed like the Caps were a step slow or a step out of position (except for when Chimera got a stick on O'Reilly, I think it was, to prevent a goal). I know the Avalanche are fast, but when your players get to within one step and then stop skating, you know something is up. It's especially annoying with Ovechkin, who loses the puck so often but then goes passive instead of hounding the player who took the puck away from him. I don't need Ovechkin to be going at 110% on defense all 200ft, like Henrik Zetterberg, but chasing his adversary for five or ten more steps, maybe 30 ft, would be nice. It would slow down the opposition, at a minimum.

I think Jeff Halpern has been a really underrated addition to this team. Not only is he a very good faceoff man (by the way, that ownage in the dot late was painful to watch), but he can do a little of the dirty work, moves plenty well, and knows how to take steps to create offense without doing too much on his own (i.e. cycling and knowing where his teammates are on the cycle).

Lastly, if you want to create room for yourself Mr. Semin, you need to force the D back by playing with speed every now and then. Look at how room as opened up for Ovechkin now that he dumps the puck in every once in a while.

Anyway, I hope for a better effort back in lower-altitude DC.

ZE Tables: Caps@Jets

Vic Ferrari's scoring chances script is handy for adding zone entries and seeing who was on ice for what. It only takes 100 at this time, so I divided the data from the Jets game into two. First part here, second here (and both copied below).

Zone Entries: Caps 1, Jets 0

I get really frustrated seeing this team do no better than even over long stretches of time against mediocre teams. The Jets are by no means a great possession team (their hot finish last season, possession-wise, notwithstanding). I was happy to see the Caps turn on their own jets in the final period. By my count, the Jets had the better of the play for all of two minutes (their only power play of the third). The best teams can still only muster ~55% of the shots and scoring chances at 5-on-5, which for teams like the Blackhawks means a shot differential that's in the low positives each period, but for the Capitals means a couple of even periods followed by a great period.

At least, I hope. I wouldn't be surprised if that third was a complete fluke that's more on the Jets than the Caps. Speedy Colorado will be a better test.

Caps had 83 of 173 entries, 48%, and going just 5v5 they were 75 of 156, 48% again, surprisingly 146, 51%. Anyway, here I don't think neutral zone play is the best indicator of how the game went. Caps were definitely not in there for the first (at least, not playing offense and not playing great defense), but carried the play in the second and especially the third.

Awards Watch: Dec 2011

Hart

1. Claude Giroux--tied for fourth in goals, first in points, plays top competition in all situations. I thought he'd struggle a bit without Carter...nope.
2. Phil Kessel--first in goals, second in points, and his zone shift is positive despite a start already near 57%, playing power-versus-power. He's taken a big step forward.
3. Jonathan Toews--does everything against tough competition in all situations, like Giroux. I just think Giroux is more of an impact player on offense.
4. Niklas Backstrom--Minnesota has ridden to the top of the league on crazy, timely goaltending. While Harding plays a'plenty, Backstrom is their starter.
5. Nikolai Khabibulin--a .932 on a team that's lottery on the road and home-ice-playoff at home needs some consistency between the pipes, and Khabby provides that, strangely.
6. 
   

Norris

It's pretty difficult to differentiate between pair-mates (McDonagh-Girardi, Boychuk-Chara, Leddy-Keith, Hjalmarsson-Seabrook, Bouwmeester-Butler, etc), but I'll try. Also seems like a lot of these guys get serious help from great checking forwards (Callahan, Kopitar/Richards, Datsyuk/Zetterberg, Bergeron, etc), but can't do much about that.

1.  Ryan McDonagh--he and Girardi are being matched very aggressively to top lines with Marc Staal out, and with hard zone starts, too. Still, he boasts a positive relative plus-minus and a GAON/60 of only 2.12.
2. Drew Doughty--tough competition and a 14.3 Corsi Rel on a middling possession team, with a zone start at 53% and zone finish of 54.2%. Few defenseman can drive offense...Doughty is one of them.
3. Nicklas Lidstrom--any way you cut it, tough competition and a 22.73 Corsi per 60 is ridiculous. Only Brent Burns--who plays 2nds, not 1sts--is better among big-minute D (minimum 15 ESTOI/gm).
4. Zdeno Chara--top competition, 18.2 Corsi Rel despite 45.5% zone start, which he turns into a 51.4% finish.
5. Erik Karlsson--plays shutdown in Ottawa with a 10.9 Corsi Rel, and leads all D in points. He's a terrific defenseman...and only 21. No relation to John Carlson, by the way.

Vezina

1. Tim Thomas: a .941 in 19 games is...Thomas-esque.
2. Brian Elliott: a .944 in 19 games is...Thomas-esque.
3. Henrik Lundqvist: the Rangers were a bad team in the early going, and Lundqvist make them look good. His .931 is 6th overall.
4. Jonathan Quick: see Lundqvist, but the Kings haven't picked up their play yet.
5. Jimmy Howard: the Wings have been great, just not scoring. Luckily, Howard is keeping pucks out of the net.

Selke

1. Joe Pavelski--first in the league in quality of competition and a 11.7 Corsi Rel.
2. Anze Kopitar--second in quality of competition, 13.9 Corsi Rel.
3. Joe Thornton--third on his team in quality of competition, but with a ridiculous 20.1 Corsi Rel.
4. Jonathan Toews--the man, the myth, the legend-in-the-making does it all.
5. Tom Pyatt--get this: 29.5% zone start, fifth on his team on quality of competition, and only a -3.9 Corsi. That's really, really good.

Calder

1. Ryan-Nugent Hopkins: leads the scoring race among rookies easily, over a point-per-game. Yeah, he does a lot of it on the PP, and yeah, he'll likely cool off pretty soon, but still pretty impressive for a kid that's really thin.
2. Adam Larsson: he may not be Tyler Myers, but Larsson is logging huge minutes on a good New Jersey team and putting up great offensive numbers for an 18-year old.
3. Gabriel Landeskog: once the Avs start scoring, he'll really be on the radar. For now, his 17+ Corsi Rel will have to suffice.
4. Craig Smith--the Predators' scoring leader.
5. Adam Henrique--just behind Patrik Elias for the Devils' scoring lead.

Adams

1. Mike Yeo, Minnesota--at least, while the Wild are atop the league. They've ridden hot goaltending to this point, though. Not a good ES team, but hey, whatever works, right?
2. Kevin Dineen, Florida--again a great possession team. Somehow, making sure Fleischmann isn't a liability and working strong special teams (which really, really hurt the Panthers last season).
3. Dave Tippett, Phoenix--who's Ilya Bryzgalov?
4. Ken Hitchcock, St. Louis--I think they would have righted the ship, anyway, but Hitch made the Blues even better. They were already a top-5 Corsi team last season; couple that with above-replacement-level goaltending, and voila.
5. Mike Babcock, Detroit--these Red Wings are closer to the 07-09 dominant, dominant possession teams than the 09-11 excellent-but-not-outstanding ones. Lidstrom, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg have ridiculous possession numbers.

Richard

1. Phil Kessel, 18
2. Milan Michalek, 18
3. Jonathan Toews, 17
4. Claude Giroux, 16
5. Steven Stamkos, 16

Ross

1. Claude Giroux, 37
2. Phil Kessel, 36
3. Joffrey Lupul, 33
4. Daniel Sedin, 33
5. Jonathan Toews, 32

Zone Entries: Caps 4, Leafs 2

Caps were 75 of 163, 46%, not terrible considering they were leading for most of the game. Of that, they were 67 of 146 at even strength (5v5 and 4v4), 51.8%, which is solid considering score effects. One would like to see a goal at ES, though.

Locker was spot on during the game, as the Caps did not get an entry for a four minute stretch early in the third (nine straight by Toronto, and for you math geeks, that's nearly 30 seconds between entries, so not all entries for the Leafs were one-and-dones).

PP was good, ES play still not completely up to par. This team is still a rushing team, and it's good to see Hunter's system able to generate rushes.

Ovechkin finally working off the rush, just need to shore up the backside pressure and focus, but it's finally looking like it's coming together for this team. No more worries from me that they'll miss the playoffs, especially since Vokoun is back on track.

Wasn't keeping tabs on who got the entries for Toronto, but I don't think Kessel got more than six entries for Toronto. Carlson and Alzner did a good job. 

I missed one entry by Toronto around the 11:45 mark of the 2nd period, but I noted that it exists, just not the type.

Zone Entries: Panthers 5, Capitals 4

Remember, Caps fans, this time is getting some bad luck right now. Luck can mean many things. Here, we saw a combination of bad bounces, saves that are made 95% of the time without issue not made, and only one power play drawn, for example. Things are going to get better.

It's not a good feeling to be the underperforming team, like St. Louis and Florida last year, or Columbus since Steve Mason's rookie season, or Calgary since Kiprusoff became average at best, or the Rangers last year. But if you ever wished that opponents wouldn't take the Caps as seriously come playoffs, well, you got your wish.

I don't really feel like tallying up the entries in any detail here. With big margins, you're going to see queer score effects. Anyway, Caps had 79 of 154, 51.3% (remember that Florida had six power plays and the Capitals only two).

Zone Entries: Caps 3, Senators 2 (OT)

Link to the spreadsheet (cells also posted below)

Positives:

• Clean breakouts and zone entries
• A good mix of dumps and controlled entries
• Discipline
• Generating chances in transition
• Alex Ovechkin (by my count) using five different moves on the rush, and using the cut-to-the-middle only twice.
• Pressure in the defensive zone, regaining possession of the puck
• Getting 87 of the 167 entries, 52.1%, despite holding a lead for about half the game (the first and half the third) and against an underrated possession team (last year they were about 49% in Fenwick, but got terrible, terrible goaltending).
• Neuvirth finding his game.
• No Semin, know win. Know Semin, no win.

Caveats:

• Sitting back a bit much with the lead, and getting hemmed in for about three minutes after Michalek tied the game.
• Getting a slumping goalie to play well.
• This was Ottawa, after all. And we haven't seen coaches really plan for Hunter, yet. His true test will be how he adapts.
• Getting 67 of 141 entries at even strength, 47.5%. A little more sitting back in the third than I would have liked to see.
• Troy Brouwer with a team-worst -9 Fenwick, -11 Corsi.
• Erik Karlsson's +12 Fenwick, +17 Corsi, despite playing plenty against Ovechkin. Just copy how teams play against Green and use that against Karlsson, who looks to me like he's ahead of where Green was at the same age.

All in all, the bottom six seems to have their game, and we're waiting for the top six to find their game. Slowly but surely, it seems like that's happening at last. Florida will be a nice follow-up test.

Zone Entries: Blues 2, Caps 1

I know St. Louis is an elite possession team, and Hitchcock is one of the best coaches around, but getting murdered in Corsi (worse than -20), especially when trailing by 1 for about half the game, is absolutely inexcusable.

That being said, there are some positives. The Caps were improved in the neutral zone, at times actually making it difficult for the other team to enter the zone. On the game, the Caps were 87 of 172, which is slightly over 50%. The Blues clearly sat back in the third, but the entries were 28-28 (including power plays). I guess work in all score situations remains to be done.

Now, cleaner break-outs and better coordination and communication between players in all zones--notice how infrequently a Blue made a pass to nobody in particular, and how often the Caps did--and this team should be set to go.

Fingers crossed.

Zone Entries: Devils 3, Capitals 2 (SO)

Much will be made about the Caps' low shot totals. Low shot totals almost always indicate that a team is hardly able to enter the offensive zone. That was most certainly not the case Saturday night, as the Capitals had 86 of 167 (51.5%), including 57 of 104 (54.8%) over the second and third periods, 44 of 76 (57.9%) at 5v5. Sure, you'd like more shots, but at the end of the day, you want to see your team doing what is going to win the most games in the long run, and I think the Capitals were playing a style that will win a lot of games in the long run.

Let's not forget that New Jersey is probably one of the best possession teams in the league (they were last season, and essentially added the league's second-best wing in Zach Parise) and are perfectly capable of dictating the pace of the game. On poor ice (there was a Georgetown game earlier in the day), the Caps dictated the game for long stretches (the second half of the third, for example) against a very good team.

When you have a lead, conventional wisdom says you want to slow the game down, and the Caps did that. When the score is tied, you attack, and the Caps did that. Maybe this is really selective memory on my part--I guess we'll know when we get a glimpse of scoring chance numbers--but if the Caps play like this against Nashville, they'll likely win.

I guess I just want to say that don't take that SOG total for what it's not. Here, it's not an accurate representation of possession here. No need to fret. Flukes happen.

Someone please teach Alex Ovechkin how to shoot past a defenseman again. Dan Girardi, Roman Hamrlik in Montreal, Mike Weaver, Rob Scuderi, Hal Gill, Anton Volchenkov, and Mark Fayne now joins the club. What was actually surprising is how often I was actually able to see Ovechkin get a chance off the rush...thank you Joel Ward.

I'm hoping Alexander Semin has a hand injury, because he's been pretty bad, not even able to make those clean saucer passes he's been able to execute with ease in the past, and the refs aren't giving him any sort of break, either. I don't care all that much about production in short samples as long as there's something the guy is doing right, but since about the third or fourth game of the season, he hasn't been doing much right.

At least Jason Chimera is doing his best to prove to me that he's actually a useful player outside of the fourth line.

Recap: Caps 3, Devils 1

It felt good to see a Caps game in-person again.